Based on the analysis by ROA Holdings, the number of mobile subscribers in South Korea will reach 52.57 million by the end of 2011. Replacement demand caused by the emergence of various new services is bound to be the major trend in South Korea, rather than the new demand.

The average annual growth rate after 2011 is expected to steadily increase to 3.26% backed by the interest in multi-devices. In this situation, it is estimated that about 59.77 million people will subscribe to mobile services by 2015, which equals to 121.60% of the penetration rate.

In terms of smartphone, the number of users will reach 19.57 million by late December, 2011 and with the launch of various models and improved networks, the percentage of smartphone users will increase steeply to 25.13%. ­ROA Holdings estimates that about 48 million people, 80.31% of the total subscribers will use smartphones in 2015, combined with the number of those who have two handsets and tablet PC.

The market share of the three mobile carriers in 2011 is forecast to be similar to that of 2010, SK Telecom leading with 50.54%, followed by Korea Telecom with 31.62% and LG U+ with 17.84%. The figures are forecast to go down slightly by 2015 due to the MVNOs entry into the prepaid market.